We have encountered an era where productivity and Producers are far out numbered by consumers and voters. We have an online Eco chamber where anyone can find their niche of like minded people, where they can comment on anything they desire. This has created voters with strongly held positions without much conviction. People seem to have lost the ability to say “I don’t have a view on that”. In the short term, the people who have learnt to ‘win’ in this era are the ones who say they are offended, who cancel, and bully others by stating how vulnerable they are.
The weekend saw a populist government policy announcement to end live export of sheep by sea. Less than 4% of the population will be directly impacted by this, but over 70% of voters support banning it.
The agriculture sector in Australia has evolved over the last 150 years to where it is today. Live export appears to be a minor contributor to the total sector. But when we dive deeper we realise the weight it upholds. Western Australia has found a particular fit with the ability to export stock. The Tibetan Platea and Mongolian Steppe are the only larger agricultural regions with a continuous similar climate/season. Neighbouring regions in a farming system with varying seasonal differences creates an opportunity for trade. WA doesn’t have this option, given the long dry summers of such a wide area.
Australia has become the largest lupin producer in the world, built partly on the back of a strong sheep industry. A ‘known known’ of a ban on live export of sheep, is a decline in domestic feed demand and likely a drop in lupin plantings. Without another profitable legume crop to replace it in rotations, we will see an increase in imported N fertiliser, our most carbon intensive fertiliser.
We also see poorer animal welfare standards from exporting nations who replace the Australian origin sheep.
This very brief and oversimplification of the kind of on the ground implications we see to top down policy, is an attempt to point to the woke paradox we see today. What appears to be a simple government policy for the typical voter, has negative implications on that voters political outcomes. Voting on a complex and diverse industry which you have little knowledge or experience in has a butterfly effect of outcomes. The woke paradox has been observed in the EU with power generation, the UK with immigration and trade, and NZ with water infrastructure and energy policy, along with an ever increasing number of other democratic institutions.
Farmers will disagree with much of this, and that’s the point. Farming, and the decisions within farming systems, are complex.