If you spend anytime absorbing media at present, it’s quite easy to feel appreciative of our current situation in comparison to the rest of the world.
Geographically, there’s not too many places better than country WA to be right now.
Financially, there’s not too many better industries to be in than agriculture right now.
The money markets have been flowing that way too. The Aussie dollar has recovered most of it’s losses, and the general consensus is Australia has managed the COVID at break better than most countries. Whether that’s from management, or the fact we are more sparsely populated, time will tell.
But will this continue?
Specifically, I’m talking about the AUD. I’m happy that rural WA’s outlook is positive.
The AUD has rallied 13% from it’s 18th March low against the USD. The market consensus behind this is that the Pandemic has had more of an impact to the US vs Australia.
What is fascinating is that the share markets have been opposites. The DOW, S&P, and NAZDAQ have all outperformed the ASX through the last month.
I’ve shared this with many of you this week. A great read/listen if you get a chance. Bill is calling for much more government stimulus to allow growth moving forward.
Currently, the US, UK and much of Europe have committed to much more stimulus (as a percentage of GDP) than Australia.
Eventually this stimulus will induce inflationary pressures on the currency. Bill makes the case that in order for inflation to occur, we need growth also. It’s difficult to imagine growth at present, coupled with 10% unemployment and negative wage growth.
My point being, there’s every likelihood we’ll see the US hit harder with the death toll, but economically recover quicker and be better primed to reassert their position in the world.
Trump already has an ‘Opening up America’ plan. We seem to be a long way off. Politics aside, Australia could well suffer much more that other nations in the months and years ahead.
We might be the lucky country for now, but we have a long way to go.