It’s always good to consider where market analysis comes from. Forecasts have about the same probability of being right as a monkey winning a darts competition.

But that’s not the point.

The point of marketing decisions for farmers is in managing the risks they take. Weighing up production risks vs market risks. Assessing those risks for the payoff against the consequences and likelihood of downside events.

Markets always move on what’s unknown, not what we already know.

A good measure to consider when assessing the views and wisdom of the internet, is ‘what is the risk assessment of this person telling me this?’ What’s their downside? What’s their upside? Who’s team are they on? Does an expert with no downside risk really have my best interests at heart?